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Goldman Sachs has raised the likelihood of a recession under President Trump to 35%, citing the risks from new tariffs and a decline in household and business confidence. The firm predicts a 0.3% increase in unemployment, estimating that Trump's policies could reduce GDP growth by 1.2% over the next year. Meanwhile, Moody's Analytics has also increased its recession probability to 40%, warning of a potential "recession by design."
Goldman Sachs has increased the probability of a U.S. recession in the next year to 35%, citing escalating trade tensions and declining consumer and business confidence. The firm has also adjusted its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1%, anticipates three interest rate cuts this year, and raised its year-end inflation forecast to 3.5%. Other institutions, including JPMorgan and Moody's Analytics, echo these concerns, with recession probabilities of 40% and warnings of soft consumer spending amid high inflation.
Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, citing deteriorating consumer and business confidence, and the economic impact of higher tariffs. The bank anticipates three interest rate cuts this year, despite inflation concerns, as it shifts focus to labor market issues and growth stagnation. Meanwhile, Moody's Mark Zandi has increased recession odds to 40%, suggesting a potential "recession by design" due to current policies.
VANECK MOODY'S ANALYTICS BBB CO
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goldman sachs raises recession odds to 35 amid tariff concerns
United States Dollar
VANECK MOODY'S ANALYTICS BBB CO
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
USA
Donald Trump
Mark Zandi
21:00 31.03.2025
Goldman Sachs raises US recession risk to 35 amid economic concerns
United States Dollar
VANECK MOODY'S ANALYTICS BBB CO
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
USA
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15:17 31.03.2025
goldman sachs raises recession odds to 35 amid tariff concerns and inflation
United States Dollar
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.
VANECK MOODY'S ANALYTICS BBB CO
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
USA
Scott Bessent
Ray Dalio
Mark Zandi
Kush Desai
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14:54 31.03.2025
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